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Poland in 2026.
A house divided.
In 2023, PIS government lost power after 8 years. Eight years of changes which if called controversial would be an understatement, encompassing all areas of life. One of them is the chief of Constitutional Order - the Constitutional Tribunal. 🧵
A house divided.
In 2023, PIS government lost power after 8 years. Eight years of changes which if called controversial would be an understatement, encompassing all areas of life. One of them is the chief of Constitutional Order - the Constitutional Tribunal. 🧵
In our system, there are two chambers of parliament. Senate (upper house) and the Sejm (the lower), with the Sejm being the main source of power. When voted in in general elections, winning majority decides who rules. Senate is a correction/confirmation machine. Useless.
Both have a cadency of 4 years.
Presidential office in Poland is also decided by general election. But for five years. So, if one government is able to have a presidential ally, all is fine and dandy. If it doesn't - it becomes a nightmare. Something we called "cohabitation".
Presidential office in Poland is also decided by general election. But for five years. So, if one government is able to have a presidential ally, all is fine and dandy. If it doesn't - it becomes a nightmare. Something we called "cohabitation".
You may have heard about Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who ordered his passport seized minutes after he lost the runoff. On Wednesday, Flavio landed in Miami.
What you probably don't know is that this story didn't start this week. Not even this year. We spoke at length with Brazilians to reconstruct what happened to their country.
What we found: a tax audit that reached two justices' homes. An inquiry the Court opened to police its own critics. A banned social network. A banker whose parties, investigators say, flew in women from Europe for politicians, and who texted Alexandre de Moraes on the day of his arrest. 🧵
What you probably don't know is that this story didn't start this week. Not even this year. We spoke at length with Brazilians to reconstruct what happened to their country.
What we found: a tax audit that reached two justices' homes. An inquiry the Court opened to police its own critics. A banned social network. A banker whose parties, investigators say, flew in women from Europe for politicians, and who texted Alexandre de Moraes on the day of his arrest. 🧵
In 2018, Brazil's federal tax agency built a special team to look for money laundering by public officials.
A new system cross-checked 818,000 names and flagged 133 with assets they could not explain.
Two were lawyers married to Supreme Court justices: Guiomar Mendes, wife of Gilmar Mendes, and Roberta Rangel, wife of Dias Toffoli. Auditors began asking Rangel's clients to explain what they had paid for.
A new system cross-checked 818,000 names and flagged 133 with assets they could not explain.
Two were lawyers married to Supreme Court justices: Guiomar Mendes, wife of Gilmar Mendes, and Roberta Rangel, wife of Dias Toffoli. Auditors began asking Rangel's clients to explain what they had paid for.
The investigation never finished. In March 2019, a month after the audit became public, Toffoli, then president of the Court, opened the "Fake News Inquiry" and picked Moraes to run it, bypassing the usual lottery.
In August, Moraes pulled the tax case into the inquiry, suspended it, and removed the two auditors in charge from their posts. They were reinstated three months later. The audit was not.
In August, Moraes pulled the tax case into the inquiry, suspended it, and removed the two auditors in charge from their posts. They were reinstated three months later. The audit was not.
1. I'm confused 😕
Having just read the Special Envoy's update
That there is an awful lot of conflation going on
"Over time, the language of human rights and its
greatest crimes – apartheid, ethnic cleansing,
genocide, etc. – has increasingly been appropriated to portray 🇮🇱 ... as morally evil, often to the point of being equated to Nazis"
aseca.gov.au/sites/default/…
Having just read the Special Envoy's update
That there is an awful lot of conflation going on
"Over time, the language of human rights and its
greatest crimes – apartheid, ethnic cleansing,
genocide, etc. – has increasingly been appropriated to portray 🇮🇱 ... as morally evil, often to the point of being equated to Nazis"
aseca.gov.au/sites/default/…
2. Yet the report itself states, citing the IHRA definition, that the
"criticism of 🇮🇱 similar to that levelled against any other country cannot be regarded
as antisemitic"
Given the incontrovertible evidence that 🇮🇱 has & is committing genocide 👇
ohchr.org/en/press-relea…
"criticism of 🇮🇱 similar to that levelled against any other country cannot be regarded
as antisemitic"
Given the incontrovertible evidence that 🇮🇱 has & is committing genocide 👇
ohchr.org/en/press-relea…
3. how does the Special Envoy suggest that people voice their rightful anger & disgust at 🇮🇱
Without being accused of being in the "service of a traditional
Marxist revolutionary agenda" or using the commission of a genocide as a 'gateway' issue to anti-Semitism
🤦♂️
Without being accused of being in the "service of a traditional
Marxist revolutionary agenda" or using the commission of a genocide as a 'gateway' issue to anti-Semitism
🤦♂️
1/ Apocalyptic scenes in Samara following Ukrainian drone strikes on the Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery show Donald Trump's powerlessness, say Russian warbloggers. They lament that the Ukrainians appear to be ignoring the man they once acclaimed as 'our Trumpushka'. ⬇️
2/ 'Older than Edda' says that the attack, defying Trump's strongly-expressed wish for Russian refineries to be off-limits for the Ukrainians, shouldn't be a surprise for anyone:
3/ "Some people are still surprised that Zelenskyy didn't listen to the order from Mr. Trump himself and instead attacked the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery.
PUBLIC RECORDS HORROR STORY:
On Sept. 1, I filed a public records request w/ @NESpower for @MarshaBlackburn's payment history going back to 1/1/25--what should be a simple printout.
To be clear, I wasn't sure if there was anything there, but I was curious about something. 1/
On Sept. 1, I filed a public records request w/ @NESpower for @MarshaBlackburn's payment history going back to 1/1/25--what should be a simple printout.
To be clear, I wasn't sure if there was anything there, but I was curious about something. 1/
Sixteen days later, @NESpower told me they would need until 9/24/26 to provide Blackburn's payment history. 2/
@NESpower On 9/24/26, @NESpower told me they would need until 10/1/26 to provide Blackburn's payment history. 3/
@Timcast Tim. Stop that. Seriously, just don't.
"Regulating private business is physically impossible" (market fatalism) was an idiotic talking point from day one. If this outcome is bad for people, it can be stopped (and should be), so let's not derail that discussion.
"Regulating private business is physically impossible" (market fatalism) was an idiotic talking point from day one. If this outcome is bad for people, it can be stopped (and should be), so let's not derail that discussion.
@Timcast "The outcome is inevitable, so the discussion of its desirability is closed" is a sleazy PR department derailing tactic, not a serious argument.
That which is good for General Motors, might very well be atrocious for America.
That which is good for General Motors, might very well be atrocious for America.
@Timcast There are good, sensible, ethical ways in which automation could be approached.
We need to talk about "Hostile field" or "Hostile political environment" polling in relation to 2026's polling environment, when GOP voters refuse to answer polls.
This refusal isn't new and it surfaced -hard- in 2008...for those who were paying attention.
Why election polls are failing🧵
1/
This refusal isn't new and it surfaced -hard- in 2008...for those who were paying attention.
Why election polls are failing🧵
1/
In a 2 Nov 2008 post, the blogger "Kevin 'Coach' Collins" spotted the following in a TIPPS poll:
TIPPs asked:
“Do you display an American flag?”
Obama - 38
McCain - 52
undecided - 9
Collins wrote:
"People who wave a flag are undecided?
Does anyone really believe this?"
2/
TIPPs asked:
“Do you display an American flag?”
Obama - 38
McCain - 52
undecided - 9
Collins wrote:
"People who wave a flag are undecided?
Does anyone really believe this?"
2/
Collins hit on the idea of "hostile field polling" questions without being a pollster.
His observation about TIPPS poll asking "Do you display the American Flag" was damned interesting from the point of view of figuring out the people lying to pollsters.
3/
His observation about TIPPS poll asking "Do you display the American Flag" was damned interesting from the point of view of figuring out the people lying to pollsters.
3/
Some new work with @eterecursion: Persona Geology.
We character trained ~100 Qwen 3.5 4Bs, one per trait adjective, and factored their weights. We find these weights sort into five factors that loosely match the Big Five in human psychology.
We character trained ~100 Qwen 3.5 4Bs, one per trait adjective, and factored their weights. We find these weights sort into five factors that loosely match the Big Five in human psychology.
Why? One story of why AIs seem human-like is the Persona Selection Model: pretraining teaches a model many personas, and post-training privileges one, the Assistant. But the traits of personas are coupled, currently in predictable or sensible ways.
These couplings may live in only ~a thousand dimensions. That would be small enough to map and intervene on, which would be a boon for alignment.
lesswrong.com/posts/sFhW3ZnP…
lesswrong.com/posts/sFhW3ZnP…
@NoDiplomacyForU @Timcast This is the moment when I say "I'm not a psychiatrist. Your mental issues are not my problem to fix."
@NoDiplomacyForU @Timcast Tim Pool might loom large among the Youtubers, but he's just a citizen journalist. Given the opportunity to have a head of state on his show, he would have been a fool if he had passed.
@NoDiplomacyForU @Timcast There's no mystery on this one to resolve. When go on pretending that there is, you don't merely look insane, you clearly demonstrate that you are insane, and that the rest of us should leave dealing with you to the professionals.
Muting you AND blocking you.
Muting you AND blocking you.
1/7
Ever wonder why some footballers can pick out a perfect pass while others struggle to find their target? ⚽
Passing accuracy isn't just about kicking the ball harder.
Here are 5 ways to work on your passing accuracy, even when you're training alone. 🧵👇
Ever wonder why some footballers can pick out a perfect pass while others struggle to find their target? ⚽
Passing accuracy isn't just about kicking the ball harder.
Here are 5 ways to work on your passing accuracy, even when you're training alone. 🧵👇
2/7 Start With a Simple Target**
You don't need a goal or expensive equipment.
Find a safe, open space and choose a clear ground marking as your target.
Start with short, gentle passes. Focus on direction before power.
You don't need a goal or expensive equipment.
Find a safe, open space and choose a clear ground marking as your target.
Start with short, gentle passes. Focus on direction before power.
3/7- Master the Inside-Foot Pass
The inside of your foot is useful for controlled, accurate ground passes.
Focus on:
- Your standing foot.
- Your body position.
- Clean contact with the ball.
- Following through towards your target.
Small details can make a difference.
The inside of your foot is useful for controlled, accurate ground passes.
Focus on:
- Your standing foot.
- Your body position.
- Clean contact with the ball.
- Following through towards your target.
Small details can make a difference.
So you are in Crypto and your OpSec is a disaster, if it even exists.
Here you have the most important things you have to do right now, in order to keep your assets (crypto, money), devices (laptop, phone) and accounts (email, apple id, exchanges, wallets) safe.
Step by step 👇
Here you have the most important things you have to do right now, in order to keep your assets (crypto, money), devices (laptop, phone) and accounts (email, apple id, exchanges, wallets) safe.
Step by step 👇
First, ask yourself these questions
1 - Your laptop and mobile phone operating systems must always be updated to the latest version. MacOS, Windows, iOS, Android, Linux. Set it up so that it updates automatically. With so many vulnerabilities are being discovered daily, missing an update means you have are leaving at least 100 windows opened for an attacker.
For alerts on critical ones sign up here: t.me/opsek_io
For alerts on critical ones sign up here: t.me/opsek_io
Flying Tulip Weekly Update: October 30
Protocol buybacks passed 1.7 million ethereum:0x5dd1a7a369e8273371d2dbf9d83356057088082c this week. Including NAV buybacks and burns, over $3M worth of FT has been bought back in total.
This week we explained:
▸ How collateral can earn while limit orders wait
▸ How TRS works without auto-deleveraging (ADL)
▸ How circuit breakers limit abnormal outflows
ftUSD supply remained stable at $5.55M, in addition to $22.26M in TVL across Flying Tulip products.
Current APYs — Ethereum / Sonic / BNB:
— USDC on Lend: 3.8% / 7.6% / 7.0%
— sftUSD: 7.5% / 12.5% / 13.2%
Earn on Ethereum, Sonic and BNB Smart Chain through ftUSD staking and Lend, with additional Flying Tulip Rewards for eligible activity.
More stats in reply👇
Protocol buybacks passed 1.7 million ethereum:0x5dd1a7a369e8273371d2dbf9d83356057088082c this week. Including NAV buybacks and burns, over $3M worth of FT has been bought back in total.
This week we explained:
▸ How collateral can earn while limit orders wait
▸ How TRS works without auto-deleveraging (ADL)
▸ How circuit breakers limit abnormal outflows
ftUSD supply remained stable at $5.55M, in addition to $22.26M in TVL across Flying Tulip products.
Current APYs — Ethereum / Sonic / BNB:
— USDC on Lend: 3.8% / 7.6% / 7.0%
— sftUSD: 7.5% / 12.5% / 13.2%
Earn on Ethereum, Sonic and BNB Smart Chain through ftUSD staking and Lend, with additional Flying Tulip Rewards for eligible activity.
More stats in reply👇
Stats as of October 30, 2026
▸ Total fees generated: $145.28K
▸ FT Protocol Buybacks: 1,740,466.78 FT
▸ System NAV: $0.101
▸ Withdrawable NAV: $0.0943
🔗flyingtulip.com/statistics
PUT Options
▸ Total backing value: $46.58M
▸ All-time yield generated: $1.55M
🔗flyingtulip.com/allocation/das…
ftUSD Total supply: $5.55M
▸ Ethereum: $4.67M supply · 7.51% APY
▸ Sonic: $885.98K supply · 12.49% APY
▸ BNB Smart Chain: $924.73 supply · 13.19% APY
🔗 flyingtulip.com/ftusd/dashboard
Lend Total TVL: $22.26M
▸Ethereum — $17.88M TVL
Borrowed $4.74M · Earned $87.55K · USDC APY 3.76%
▸Sonic — $4.32M TVL
Borrowed $2.17M · Earned $30.03K · USDC APY 7.63% ▸BNB Smart Chain — $63.33K TVL
Borrowed $28.01K · Earned $42.43 · USDC APY 6.97%
🔗flyingtulip.com/lend/dashboard
▸ Total fees generated: $145.28K
▸ FT Protocol Buybacks: 1,740,466.78 FT
▸ System NAV: $0.101
▸ Withdrawable NAV: $0.0943
🔗flyingtulip.com/statistics
PUT Options
▸ Total backing value: $46.58M
▸ All-time yield generated: $1.55M
🔗flyingtulip.com/allocation/das…
ftUSD Total supply: $5.55M
▸ Ethereum: $4.67M supply · 7.51% APY
▸ Sonic: $885.98K supply · 12.49% APY
▸ BNB Smart Chain: $924.73 supply · 13.19% APY
🔗 flyingtulip.com/ftusd/dashboard
Lend Total TVL: $22.26M
▸Ethereum — $17.88M TVL
Borrowed $4.74M · Earned $87.55K · USDC APY 3.76%
▸Sonic — $4.32M TVL
Borrowed $2.17M · Earned $30.03K · USDC APY 7.63% ▸BNB Smart Chain — $63.33K TVL
Borrowed $28.01K · Earned $42.43 · USDC APY 6.97%
🔗flyingtulip.com/lend/dashboard
